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As Time Goes By

 

Exhibit One (and only):
Chronological Tracking of the Election as the Posts came in
 
Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 4, 2020
A key factor in House Rs' ability to easily hold onto districts that Trump likely lost last night: in 2018, the only way for suburbanites to take out anger at Trump was down-ballot; this year, they could vote against Trump and still vote for down-ballot Rs they like.
 
Tim Alberta/Politico magazine:
Three Reasons Biden Flipped the Midwest
Trump gave away his gains with key groups from four years ago and Biden reclaimed lost Democratic ground.
1) Biden kept Trump from running up the score with working-class whites
2) Biden peeled away Trump’s support in conservative suburbs
3) Biden got Black voters to turn out in big numbers
Biden won WI by 20k votes. Clinton lost WI by 23k votes. The difference? Trump's bleeding in the wealthy white MKE burbs.
2016
Washington: Trump +40
Waukesha: Trump +27
Ozaukee: Trump +19
2020
Washington: Trump +38
Waukesha: Trump +21
Ozaukee: Trump +12
 
Jack Jenkins/Religious News Service:
How Trump’s strong play for Hispanic evangelicals helped him stun Biden in Florida
‘I think the Biden campaign is going to say, ‘We blew it: we took for granted the Latino vote and the evangelical vote,’’ said the Rev. Tony Suarez, vice president of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference
One answer, said the Rev. Gabriel Salguero, founder of the National Latino Evangelical Coalition and Florida resident, is religion.
“It confirmed what I’ve been saying for about three or four election cycles: that Latinos are not a monolith writ large, and that Hispanic evangelicals are quintessential swing voters,” said Salguero, who served on the White House’s Advisory Council on Faith-Based and Neighborhood Partnerships under former President Barack Obama.
Salguero pointed to two major Hispanic voting blocs in the state: ones with ties to Cuba, which President Donald Trump carried with 55%, according to NBC exit polls, and others with ties to Puerto Rico, only 30% of whom backed the president.
Cubans and Puerto Ricans, Salguero noted, represent roughly the same percentage of the Florida electorate — around 29% and 27%, respectively, according to Pew Research. But Hispanic evangelicals, while a small group overall, overlap with both groups and tend to be swayed by issues rather than loyalty to one party.
“You have those very close races, and who’s going to make the difference? Probably the quintessential faith voter in Orlando, in Tampa and in Miami.”
 
Aaron Astor
Trump advisers are also venting at what they describe as a grossly incompetent post-Election Day operation. “I don’t know what the message is,” said one prominent surrogate who regularly appears on cable to defend Trump: “There’s no organization or coordination. If I was to go on TV right now, I wouldn’t know what the [blank] to say.”
A senior administration official said: “When Bush had this issue, they tapped arguably the pre-eminent statesman of his generation, James Baker, to spearhead their legal and PR efforts, to great effect. … We rolled out Rudy Giuliani, Corey Lewandowski and Pam Bondi. You can draw your own conclusions.”
 
More from Aaron Astor
I keep coming back to how hard it is to unseat an incumbent President. Ultimately it was Trump himself who flubbed the Presidency away. Each misstep added up. Not one single incident - a bunch of failures on pandemic and Floyd protests pushed enough non-Twitter people away.
 There absolutely was a reservoir of support for Trump that could have carried him over the top - every incumbent carries it (think of Ford nearly winning 1976; W in 2004 & Obama 2012 each beating their poll numbers in the end). So Biden had to take advantage of each Trump error. 

This is especially true for a challenger running on a "restoration" campaign and not on a "new direction" theme. It would be more important to get all anti-Trump voters to vote than to create whole new groups of supporters who might flake out in the end.
 
Politico:
‘This f---ing virus’: Inside Donald Trump’s 2020 undoing
How Biden prevailed and Trump fell short in an unforgettable election, according to conversations with 75 insiders.
Trump was perplexed. The economy was strong. The president had built an enormous political infrastructure and was raking in hundreds of millions of dollars. That month, Trump’s campaign conducted a $1.1 million polling project showing him leading prospective Democratic challengers even in blue states such as Colorado, New Mexico, and New Hampshire.
“Sir, regardless, this is coming. It’s the only thing that could take down your presidency,” Parscale told the president.
Trump snapped.
“This fucking virus,” Trump asked dismissively, according to a person with direct knowledge of the exchange, “what does it have to do with me getting reelected?”
That was exactly the attitude Joe Biden expected from the president. And Biden saw his task as unambiguous.
Create a contrast. Follow the scientists whom Trump ignored. Wear a mask, halt public events and reinvent campaigning to avoid putting people in harm’s way.
 
Len Necefer, Ph.D. (@lennecefer) November 7, 2020
You want to know how much the Navajo Nation dislikes trump?
1. of the 85,000 registered voters on Navajo (Reservations) 76,000 voted. 89% turn out
2. Of those 76,000 voters 74,000 voted for Biden & 2,000 for Trump
3. Biden’s current lead in Arizona sits at about 40,000
    Ya’ah’teeh MFs

(Museum Note: The Final Results were about a 10.5k Biden win)
 
The Museum November 7th comment
And then there is the Trump GOTV effect: To paraphrase Livy: “Republicans sure do love them some Trump.” In two elections he has outperformed the polls by around 5%. Biden was expected to get about 51% and check out the Results. Trump’s improvement was from his expected 44% to 49%. These voters did not show up in any of the midterms, 2018 being the big one of course, and the other two years mostly special elections. Georgia will be interesting on January 5th.  Who will show up without Trump at the top of the ticket?
 
Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford
All four of the lawsuits that the Trump administration has filed in our state have been thrown out that I have been participating in. They continue to come with frivolous, baseless claims of speculation about voter fraud that's widespread, that ostensibly is changing the results of the election. And we continue to get them tossed out of court.”
“One allegation the Trump campaign makes is that dead people voted in the election, but they've not filed a complaint with my office. They continue to operate through the media as a PR stunt to blow up my timeline on Twitter to make it appear as though we're not doing our job, when the fact is, they have not presented a complaint with us that we can even verify, let alone investigate.”
 
David Nir
While the 2020 exit polls have not yet been finalized, we can already say with certainty that Americans who have served in the military shifted their political preferences dramatically over the last four years. In 2016, voters who served in the armed forces supported Donald Trump by a wide 60-34 margin, but preliminary data from this year shows that this same group gave Trump a much narrower 54-44 edge. In all, that’s a 16-point swing—far wider than the national shift in the popular vote over the same time span.
 
The Museum
I figured it out, this is all Divine intervention.
As previously stated first God sends Covid, and when that might not be enough he has Trump catch it himself.
It is still too close, so God himself does the voter fraud, which is why the GOP can’t find any trace of it, because it is divinely done, and of course he doesn’t give a damn (and with God that counts) about Democrats down ticket.
 
Politico:
How Biden swung the religious vote
Trump’s team thought religious-minded voters would save him in key states. They now appear to have turned away just enough for him to lose.
Between 47 percent and 50 percent of Catholic voters supported Trump — a small decline from 2016, but enough to cost him the Rust Belt states that mattered most to his path to victory. Nationally, the president carried white Catholics by a 15-point margin, according to AP/VoteCast data, marking a significant decline from his 33-point margin of victory over Hillary Clinton four years ago.
 
 
WaPo: — Tom Winter,November 12, 2020
NEW: Using bold letters, CISA (which is part of DHS), says, "there is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised."
A full throated response to unverifiable allegations raised by the President and his allies about votes.

(In response Trump fired the Agency Head)
 
Jed Shugerman/WaPo:
Trump’s legal challenges to the election will help Democrats
Rejection in courts of Trump’s spurious claims will help legitimize Biden’s victory
The lawsuits may prove to be the best way to legitimize President-elect Joe Biden’s victory and draw to a close years of bogus complaints about voter fraud. The lack of merit in the legal complaints means they will be dead on arrival in the courts, and while the resounding rejection of Trump’s fantasies by judges will not persuade his fiercest loyalists, it will prevent conspiracy theories from spreading
 
Will Bunch/Philly.com:
A less-racist brand of Trump populism could bring a GOP dynasty unless Dems do something|
When the first election returns started coming in from Texas’ Zapata County — a hot, dusty corner of the Rio Grande Valley with oil rigs and a large Latine population — some online voting-fraud sleuths thought there’d been a voting machine glitch, or worse. How could a county that had voted nearly 2-1 for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton show President Trump narrowly ahead?
The reality is that baffled, faraway Twitter posters and their assumptions about Texas’ Hispanic vote hadn’t encountered actual voters like 72-year-old retired social worker and teacher Maria Elia Ramos of Rio Grande City, who shrugged off Trump’s xenophobic and sometimes racist rhetoric as well as hectoring family members on Facebook to vote for the GOP. “We have a right to decide,” she told the Los Angeles Times. “Our family values are more in line with Republicans.”
Zapata County’s centrist Democratic longtime congressman, Henry Cuellar, told the Texas Tribune that the heavily Latine region is “homogenous, deeply religious, pensively patriotic, socially conservative, and it’s hurting economically.” Indeed, for these mostly working-class voters it was arguably “the economy, stupid.” They feared some of the national Democratic rhetoric on the oil industry and the U.S. Border Patrol — two big sources of jobs — while many took special notice of Trump’s name on this summer’s $1,200 federal stimulus check.
 
Utah Senator Mitt Romney
“Having failed to make even a plausible case of widespread fraud or conspiracy before any court of law, the President has now resorted to overt pressure on state and local officials to subvert the will of the people and overturn the election. It is difficult to imagine a worse, more undemocratic action by a sitting American President,”
 
At the Exit: (not chronological)
This is, verbatim, what Teras Senator Ted Cruz predicted about the Virus in July:
“If it ends up that Biden wins in November—I hope he doesn't, I don't think he will—but if he does, I guarantee you the week after the election, suddenly all those Democratic governors, all of those Democratic mayors will say, ‘Everything is magically better, go back to work, go back to school.’ Suddenly the problems are solved. You won’t to have to wait for Biden to be sworn in.”

    (Museum Note: The Virus, like Science, does not care if you believe in it or not.)

Unkwil

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Uncle Willie loves to have feedback from both readers who appreciate his point of view as well as from misguided souls who disagree.