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Elections Have Consequences

 

Exhibit One: The Morning After from the Left

Kerry Eleveld,
Daily Kos Staff
“The Upshot's Nate Cohn writes that House Democrats are projected to win the popular vote nationwide by 7 to 8 points once all the votes are counted. That's slightly better than the GOP's margin in 2010 or even 1994 and roughly the same as the Democrats' margin in 2006. "In a word," Cohn writes, that's "a wave."

And he's right, it's a wave by any measure except for that of Donald Trump and some GOP strategists. “I thought it was very close to a complete victory,” Trump said during his extraterrestrial post-election rant Wednesday. That's fine, let Republicans ignore the trouncing entirely while Democrats build on it for 2020.

As of now, Democrats have flipped 34 House seats, at least seven governorships, and six legislative chambers. Those numbers don't include outstanding races where either votes are still being counted and/or recounts might still ensue.

In the Senate, Democrats were defending 26 seats in total, 10 in states that Trump won by a lot, and at this juncture Democrats have surrendered only three of those seats while flipping at least one other from red to blue. (Outcomes in Florida and Arizona remain in question, while Mississippi is headed to a runoff.) It was the toughest Senate map in a century and, at most, Republicans could end up with a 54-seat majority. So far, all the GOP pick ups have come in deeply red states—Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota—meaning Republicans didn't expand their map into truly purple or blue states.

But the Democratic gains in the House were pretty extraordinary given the challenges they faced. Not only were the vast majority of the districts highly gerrymandered to favor Republicans, Democrats also had to make up the bulk of their pickups in red districts (versus winning back seats in blue territory, similar to what the GOP did in the Senate).

As Cohn writes:

“At the beginning of the [2018] cycle, only nine Republicans represented districts that tilted Democratic in the previous two presidential elections. Even in a wave election, these are usually the only incumbents who are standing on the beach with a greater than 50 percent chance to lose.

There were 24 such Republicans in 2006, and 67 such Democrats in 2010.

In other words, Democrats this cycle started off in a far worse position than either party did in the previous two wave elections. When all the votes were counted in 2006, Democrats netted 30 seats. So far this cycle, they've already netted 32 pick ups even though they had fewer easy pick offs. Democrats have also picked up more seats in deep-red districts this cycle than Republicans did deep-blue seats in 2010. 

That's a wave.” 

Exhibit Two: The Condescending Left

Our white woman problem,
Betty Cracker @ balloon juice
“I’ve seen a bunch of “WTF, white women?!?” takes today after exit polls showed the majority voted for troglodytes like Kemp, Cruz, DeSantis and Scott. College-educated white women have been a key part of the anti-Trump resistance in many of the suburbs where Democrats won.

But about half of white women — and in some places, distressingly huge majorities of them, if the exit polls are accurate — keep voting for Trump enablers and can eventually be counted on to vote for Trump again.

Martha Crawford, LCSW, tweeted the best explanation for our persistent white women problem that I’ve ever seen. “

“My point is that a large number of these 54% of white women are completely enmeshed with the supremacy of white men – their very comforts rest upon it. We have to build our coalition with less than half of white women – they like their comfy cages. Resign yourself to that “more than half of white women” uphold oppression. They have found ways to make their own disempowered lives quite comfy with layers and layers of vicarious power. They don’t yearn for freedom at all. They find it repellant.”
 
The Museum notes that the other meme is that Southern Woman were and still are raised to be Slave Holders, and this shows up in their voting pattern to this day. Thus the vote for Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith in the Mississippi Senate run off.
 
The Museum finds this interesting especially since it is coming from the “Feminist” side. How about individuals voting their conscious and finding, like White Males, that the Republican Party more closely matches their views on how government and society at large should interact? Why can only White Males have the independence of thought to formulate and act on their own political agenda? The Feminist agenda is just that, an agenda, and the Museum finds it totally predictable that it would appeal only to the certain segment of society. The Museum give you Hillary Clinton and Condoleezza Rice, both former Secretaries of State. Which one was more “empowered?”
 
Exhibit Three: The Trump “Problem”
 
“Trump has remade the GOP in his own image. It's costing them.”
First Read is your briefing from "Meet the Press" and the NBC Political Unit on the day's most important political stories and why they matter.
“What happened last night? Well, the Senate seat that Flake gave up is now in Democratic hands, with NBC News declaring Kyrsten Sinema the apparent winner over Republican Martha McSally in the race to succeed Flake. The call for Sinema came after she extended her lead over McSally by more than 38,000 votes.
Sinema becomes the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate race in Arizona since 1988.
And Arizona isn’t the only place where Trump’s beefs with other Republicans ended up costing his party. In June, the president attacked Rep. Mark Sanford, R-S.C. and endorsed his primary opponent Katie Arrington – which helped defeat Sanford. What happened last week? Democrat Joe Cunningham beat Arrington, flipping that Charleston-area congressional seat to the Democrats.
And in August, Trump endorsed Kris Kobach over incumbent GOP Gov. Jeff Colyer — and Kobach narrowly won that primary. What happened last week? Well, Democrat Laura Kelly beat Kobach, giving Dems one of their most impressive wins in a red state.”
 
Politico:
“Republicans used redistricting to build a wall around the House. Trump just tore it down.
GOP gerrymandering did not envision the upending of the Republican coalition.

House Democrats steamrolled Republicans in an array of districts last week, from those drawn by independent commissions or courts, to seats crafted specifically by Republicans with the intention of keeping them in the GOP column.

The overriding factor: a Republican president who political mapmakers could not have foreseen at the beginning of the decade. Trump altered the two parties’ coalitions in ways that specifically undermined conventional wisdom about the House map, bringing more rural voters into the GOP tent while driving away college-educated voters.

The trade worked in some states. But it was a Republican disaster in the House, where well-off suburbs, once the backbone of many GOP districts, rebelled against Trump in 2016 and then threw out House members in 2018. “It’s worth pointing out that the map is still quite gerrymandered,” said David Shor, head of political data science at Civis Analytics, a Democratic firm. “But I think an underappreciated aspect of that is you had districts that elected incumbents that were good fits for the [Republican] coalition that existed — but no longer worked as well when the 2016 realignment happened.”

Exhibit Four: Three Weeks Later

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 27, 2018

Another way of looking at it: in January, House Dems will represent:

79% of all Asians

72% of all Latinos

66% of all African-Americans
66% of all Clinton voters

60% of all college grads

54% of all House seats

45% of all whites

39% of all Trump voters

20% of America's land area

At the Exit: “BE YE THEREFORE PERFECT....”

In his November 25th Tandra Notes, Hanther pointed out the importance of not “cherry picking” a Holy Book. Prophets did not say some things in jest and only “mean” the ones you agree with. Far too often we find people thinking Jesus came with a “Get out of Jail Free Card”, that no matter what you did in this life, all would be forgiven if you “accepted” Christ (done most times in fear of their past unChristian deeds) just before you died. Check out the Middle Ages and the Church’s death-bed absolutions.

Nor can one take things out of context, for example taking Mythos or Allegory as fact, or pulling quotes from a specific situation and applying it to all situations. The other important point is that if you are reading a Translation to English you are reading not the original text but the translator’s version of the original text. There is the Hebrew Bible, the Greek New Testament, the Arabic Koran, the Mahabharata and Buddist texts in Sanskrit. What is lost, what is gained? It is the translator’s knowledge at work, not the Divine.

As for Hanther’s astute column, The Museum will add two more Matthew quotes, from the King James Version, the Museums (mis)Translation of choice:
Matthew 5:17
"Think not that I am come to destroy the law, or the prophets: I am not come to destroy, but to fulfil.
Matthew 6:24
“No man can serve two masters: for either he will hate the one, and love the other; or else he will hold to the one, and despise the other. Ye cannot serve God and mammon.”
Joel Osteen and other partakers of the “Prosperity Gospel” take note.

Unkwil

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Uncle Willie loves to have feedback from both readers who appreciate his point of view as well as from missguided souls who disagree.